One of my favorite creators, Kyla Scanlon, coined the term "vibecession" to describe the schism between consumer sentiment and economic data when they should intuitively align. My simple takeaway from her great analysis is that we are in a time when perception truly is reality. And nowhere is this more evident than in creator land, where *vibes* often precede fundamentals. Given this, it’s somewhat amusing to apply traditional Bain-style category diligence — complete with market sizing, competitive landscapes, and pricing analyses — to our evaluation of creator opportunities. Yet the advantage of backing niche creators, rather than pure attention-seekers, is precisely that we can and should bring rigorous thinking to this aspect of our assessment.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve taken deep dives into what we look for in both creators and their communities. Today, we’ll unpack how we evaluate the specific category a creator occupies. From our earlier "What We Look For" overview:
Category: Unsurprisingly, community is closely tied to category and when considered together, they represent a theme. In this context, we ask how niche, durable, and investable the category is. We prefer specific or narrow verticals over broad entertainment or lifestyle, where attention can be ephemeral. It’s also (relatively) easier to build lasting enterprise value in a niche. From there, we look to understand the competitive and commercial dynamics of the category and pattern of consumer behavior.
As mentioned above, the combination of community and category defines a theme; but evaluating a category in isolation is incomplete. Community insight significantly shapes the contours of the category we need to examine. Recall last week’s newsletter covering our evaluation of community featuring Jordan Mara (@mindandsoil). Without understanding his audience’s motivation, one might have limited the analysis strictly to gardening. However, our deeper exploration revealed his audience was actually more aligned with "food sovereignty," updating, and substantially broadening, the research aperture.
Assuming a solid grasp of the underlying theme, the initial and simplest question to ask is: What category does the creator operate in, and what makes it compelling or differentiated?
Often, the answer points toward categories with distinct, recognized boundaries and sub-segments. An equestrian creator, for instance, exemplifies this clearly. Clarifying dimensions such as specific verticals (dressage vs. western riding) or sub-niches (horse health, equine insurance) are identifiable, with well-established consumer behaviors, spending habits, and industry structures. Typically enthusiast or expert-driven creators occupy these clearly defined niches.
But what if the answer isn’t as straightforward? Sometimes the category is anchored by a "world" crafted by the creator. In such cases, the category transcends traditional boundaries, and is instead shaped by the creator’s broader cultural influence and the role they assume for their followers. Consider Hannah Neeleman from @ballerinafarm. She isn’t limited to one niche; instead, she encapsulates a holistic farm and family-life spanning animal raising, kids, food, fashion, health, and beyond. Such categories are less structured but strongly cohesive; followers deeply resonate with the creator’s way of living and values. This dynamic is common among creators addressing cultural milieus or even taboo topics. While these categories can simultaneously feel broad yet narrow, deeply understanding what resonates with their audience becomes a critical input to category work.
Across both types, certain key questions remain consistent:
Market Dynamics & Competition: How crowded or competitive is the space? What industry dynamics shape opportunities and risks?
Whitespace & Creator Fit: Is there significant, defensible whitespace — and is the creator uniquely positioned to dominate?
Consumer Spend & Behavior: What are typical spending behaviors and decisions within the category? How compelling or urgent is the creator’s "job to be done"?
Market Share & Scale: What market share must the creator realistically capture to achieve meaningful scale, and are emerging consumer trends supportive?
Durability & Profitability: Is the category sustainably growing, with high lifetime value customers and accessible profit pools?
The diligence approach varies by category type. Conventional niches lend themselves well to quantitative analyses like market sizing, competitive mapping, and consumer spend. More fluid, less defined categories require a different lens, emphasizing audience resonance, consumer behavior, potential adjacent market expansion, and authenticity of the creator-community connection. In these instances, concrete conversion data (product sales, subscriptions, direct consumer spend for example) becomes particularly critical for validating commercial viability. We will cover this next week.
Finally, it’s important to remember that category diligence serves as a general guide. One of the most strategic properties of creators is their ability to authentically expand into adjacent categories and do so with permission from their audience. By leveraging their personal brands to move fluidly across related niches, they have the opportunity to unlock upside outside of the scope originally considered, especially when compared to a traditional brand.
Effective category evaluation blends traditional market diligence with nuanced understanding of audience resonance and cultural context. Next week, in the final installment of this series, we'll dive into the quantitative aspects — size, scale, and traction — that we look for in creator opportunities.
Have a great rest of the week!
— Megan
P.S. Read more from the archive here